PUNE: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the southwest monsoon will arrive on time. It is expected to reach the Andaman Sea this week and Kerala by May 31.
"The southwest monsoon usually moves to the Andaman Sea around May 20. It is expected to cover the Andaman Sea in the next few days, which will be close to its normal date of arrival," said P S P Rao, IMD director (weather central).
The Met department has used a forecast model that suggests the monsoon's advance to Kerala on May 31 with an error margin of four days. The southwest monsoon over Kerala marks the beginning of the rainy season from June to September in India. The IMD uses an indigenously developed statistical model for operational forecasts of the monsoon's onset. Last year, the monsoon reached the Andaman Sea on May 17, three days ahead of schedule. It hit the Kerala coast on May 31, a day in advance. Cyclone 'Laila' over the Bay of Bengal had hastened the advance of the monsoon, IMD had said.
This year, IMD has used the forecast model based on Principal Component Regression technique with six predictors. These include minimum temperature over northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over the southern peninsula, outgoing long-wave radiation over the South China Sea, lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean, upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean, and outgoing long-wave radiation over the southwest Pacific region.
Outgoing long-wave radiation, that is, radiation of heat from the earth helps better monsoon forecast. Satellites can measure this radiation in a particular area between specific latitudes and longitudes.
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"The southwest monsoon usually moves to the Andaman Sea around May 20. It is expected to cover the Andaman Sea in the next few days, which will be close to its normal date of arrival," said P S P Rao, IMD director (weather central).
The Met department has used a forecast model that suggests the monsoon's advance to Kerala on May 31 with an error margin of four days. The southwest monsoon over Kerala marks the beginning of the rainy season from June to September in India. The IMD uses an indigenously developed statistical model for operational forecasts of the monsoon's onset. Last year, the monsoon reached the Andaman Sea on May 17, three days ahead of schedule. It hit the Kerala coast on May 31, a day in advance. Cyclone 'Laila' over the Bay of Bengal had hastened the advance of the monsoon, IMD had said.
This year, IMD has used the forecast model based on Principal Component Regression technique with six predictors. These include minimum temperature over northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over the southern peninsula, outgoing long-wave radiation over the South China Sea, lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean, upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean, and outgoing long-wave radiation over the southwest Pacific region.
Outgoing long-wave radiation, that is, radiation of heat from the earth helps better monsoon forecast. Satellites can measure this radiation in a particular area between specific latitudes and longitudes.
toi
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