KOLKATA: The undulating plateau, the apparently timid Adivasi, under-development in forest hamlets: all this look the same as they did a decade ago. Yet, much has changed in Jangalmahal since the 2008 tribal upsurge.
It has unsettled political equations in the red bastion. On Tuesday, 14 assembly segments spread over West Midnapore, Bankura and Purulia go to polls in the last phase in West Bengal.
Though the Left Front maintained a comfortable lead in most of the 14 seats in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, it's different this time. If the voting percentage increases in Jhargram, Balarampur and Baghmundi on Tuesday, Jangalmahal may spring some surprises.
Many in the forest hamlets of Kantapahari, Purnapani and Birkand in Jhargram assembly segment, for instance, did not vote in 2009 because of the vote boycott call by Maoists. With spectacular security arrangements in 2011 (it works out to one paramilitary jawan for 23 voters), villagers are likely to have a free choice in the last lap of the make-or-break election.
In December 2008, Jhargram had voted for status quo despite the tribal dissent in West Midnapore. Mamata Banerjee and her party could not cash in on the anti-incumbency even after a dharna in Midnapore town. Three years later, Trinamool Congress leader Subhendu Adhikari has established his influence in around 40 booths in Jhargram. This is apart from the Maoist-led PCPA strongholds in forest hamlets.
In Jhargram, the PCPA attacks both the CPM and Trinamool. CPM leaders are banking on this division of votes to scrape through in a constituency where they had led by nearly 20,000 votes two years ago.
CPM's position is the worst in Nayagram and Gopiballavpur where the Opposition including the PCPA have come under the Shramik-Krishak Oikya banner, trying to tear into the CPM in a segment where the Left had won by 29,076 votes in 2009.
Statistics may go against the prediction of a CPM defeat in Nayagram. The Left's vote machinery has been marginalised in this area, bordered by the Subarnarekha river and flanked by Orissa and East Midnapore, a safe corridor for Maoists. It is also a strategic place for Trinamool. Here, five members of the Aguan family were killed in Nichu Patina village. Subhendu Adhikari has established a working unity among the Opposition in this assembly segment.
In Gopiballavpur, Trinamool candidate Churamani Mahato is an old Naxalite who had built the PCPA network after June 2009. The network has strengthened in two years. Trinamool is its political face.
CPM Midnapore district secretariat member Dahareswar Sen draws succour from the party's 47,248 margin in the Lok Sabha polls. "There has been some erosion in our support base. Even then the Opposition can't wipe out the huge margin we had," said Sen.
Trinamool's Adhikari, who has been camping in this zone, said his party will wrest at least four seats. "We will win Nayagram, Balarampur and Baghmundi and have bright prospects in Gopiballavpur, Salboni and Jhargram. We will win Jhargram if Chattradhar Mahato's brigade is unable to cross the 10,000-mark. We are in a close fight with CPM in Midnapore," he said.
In Garbeta, CPM's margin is likely to fall dramatically, Adhikari predicted. He has also managed to get the support of Jharkhand Party leader Babu Bose who had sided with CPM in the last election.
Adhikari concedes that his party won't be able to make much headway in Binpur constituency, cradle of the upsurge. Belpahari has changed in a year. JKP (Naren) candidate Chunibala Hansda has lost her credibility among the tribals to a large extent. The Congress is backing young tribal candidate Arjun Hansda, who is likely to fetch maximum votes from the Jamboni block. CPM's Dibakar Hansda has a good chance of steering clear in this triangular fight. Situation in Joypur assembly segment is similar where the Opposition led by 6,871 votes in 2009. The Opposition here is a divided lot, while CPM and Forward Bloc stand united.
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It has unsettled political equations in the red bastion. On Tuesday, 14 assembly segments spread over West Midnapore, Bankura and Purulia go to polls in the last phase in West Bengal.
Though the Left Front maintained a comfortable lead in most of the 14 seats in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, it's different this time. If the voting percentage increases in Jhargram, Balarampur and Baghmundi on Tuesday, Jangalmahal may spring some surprises.
Many in the forest hamlets of Kantapahari, Purnapani and Birkand in Jhargram assembly segment, for instance, did not vote in 2009 because of the vote boycott call by Maoists. With spectacular security arrangements in 2011 (it works out to one paramilitary jawan for 23 voters), villagers are likely to have a free choice in the last lap of the make-or-break election.
In December 2008, Jhargram had voted for status quo despite the tribal dissent in West Midnapore. Mamata Banerjee and her party could not cash in on the anti-incumbency even after a dharna in Midnapore town. Three years later, Trinamool Congress leader Subhendu Adhikari has established his influence in around 40 booths in Jhargram. This is apart from the Maoist-led PCPA strongholds in forest hamlets.
In Jhargram, the PCPA attacks both the CPM and Trinamool. CPM leaders are banking on this division of votes to scrape through in a constituency where they had led by nearly 20,000 votes two years ago.
CPM's position is the worst in Nayagram and Gopiballavpur where the Opposition including the PCPA have come under the Shramik-Krishak Oikya banner, trying to tear into the CPM in a segment where the Left had won by 29,076 votes in 2009.
Statistics may go against the prediction of a CPM defeat in Nayagram. The Left's vote machinery has been marginalised in this area, bordered by the Subarnarekha river and flanked by Orissa and East Midnapore, a safe corridor for Maoists. It is also a strategic place for Trinamool. Here, five members of the Aguan family were killed in Nichu Patina village. Subhendu Adhikari has established a working unity among the Opposition in this assembly segment.
In Gopiballavpur, Trinamool candidate Churamani Mahato is an old Naxalite who had built the PCPA network after June 2009. The network has strengthened in two years. Trinamool is its political face.
CPM Midnapore district secretariat member Dahareswar Sen draws succour from the party's 47,248 margin in the Lok Sabha polls. "There has been some erosion in our support base. Even then the Opposition can't wipe out the huge margin we had," said Sen.
Trinamool's Adhikari, who has been camping in this zone, said his party will wrest at least four seats. "We will win Nayagram, Balarampur and Baghmundi and have bright prospects in Gopiballavpur, Salboni and Jhargram. We will win Jhargram if Chattradhar Mahato's brigade is unable to cross the 10,000-mark. We are in a close fight with CPM in Midnapore," he said.
In Garbeta, CPM's margin is likely to fall dramatically, Adhikari predicted. He has also managed to get the support of Jharkhand Party leader Babu Bose who had sided with CPM in the last election.
Adhikari concedes that his party won't be able to make much headway in Binpur constituency, cradle of the upsurge. Belpahari has changed in a year. JKP (Naren) candidate Chunibala Hansda has lost her credibility among the tribals to a large extent. The Congress is backing young tribal candidate Arjun Hansda, who is likely to fetch maximum votes from the Jamboni block. CPM's Dibakar Hansda has a good chance of steering clear in this triangular fight. Situation in Joypur assembly segment is similar where the Opposition led by 6,871 votes in 2009. The Opposition here is a divided lot, while CPM and Forward Bloc stand united.
toi
1 comment:
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